The belief that promoted sides that stayed up in their first season are often relegated in their second is a popular one, with the phrase ‘second-season syndrome’ regularly thrown about. But is it as common as people think?
Last season Sunderland and Leeds became the 53rd and 54th promoted sides to survive in the Premier League.
Of the previous 52, only 11 were relegated the following season (21%). The vast majority of promoted teams that stay up do not suffer from second-season syndrome.
However, there is precedent for a promoted side that had a first season as good as Sunderland‘s to be relegated in their second. In fact, the best promoted side in the 38-game era of the Premier League did just that.
George Burley’s Ipswich ended the 2000-01 campaign fifth with 66 points – the highest finish and most points any promoted side has achieved in a 38-game season.
But with European football to contend with, they dropped 13 places and took 30 fewer points the next season as they were relegated in 18th place, with Sunderland the beneficiaries as they finished just one place above them.
Overall, four of the previous 20 promoted sides (20%) that finished in the top half in their first season suffered relegation in their second, with the most recent example being Sheffield United five years ago